The Wisconsin Exacta.

Politics. Foreign and domestic.

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1. Republicans Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine won special elections Tuesday in two Florida congressional districts, bolstered by President Donald Trump’s endorsement to fill vacant seats in reliably Republican strongholds. Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont even though she far outraised and outspent him. He will fill the northwest Florida 1st District seat vacated by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who was chosen to be Trump’s attorney general but withdrew from consideration amid allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied. In north Florida’s 6th District, Fine won against Democratic challenger Josh Weil for a seat vacated by Mike Waltz when he was tapped to become Trump’s national security adviser. The win bolsters Republicans’ margin of 220-213 in the House of Representatives. Special elections are often low-turnout events that can lead to surprising results. While GOP wins were widely expected in both districts — two of the most heavily Republican in the country — it’s notable that Democrats narrowed the margins considerably from November. Ed Note: Turnout was down, dramatically, in both districts, when compared with the turnout in last November’s general election. This may account for much of (or most of) the drop-off in GOP support. (Source: apnews.com, results via apnews.com/nytimes.com)

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2. Reid Epstein, The New York Times:

A liberal candidate for a pivotal seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court overcame $25 million in spending from Elon Musk and defeated her conservative opponent on Tuesday, The Associated Press reported, in a contest that became a kind of referendum on Mr. Musk and his (efforts to reduce the size of) the federal government.

With turnout extraordinarily high for a spring election in an off year, Judge Susan Crawford handily beat Judge Brad Schimel, who ran on his loyalty to President Trump and was aided by Mr. Musk, the president’s billionaire policy aide.

Mr. Musk not only poured money into the race but also campaigned personally in the state, even donning a cheesehead. But his starring role seemed to inflame Democratic anger against him even more than it helped Judge Schimel.

The barrage of spending in the race may nearly double the previous record for a single judicial election. With about 95 percent of the vote counted on Tuesday evening, Judge Crawford held a lead of 10 percentage points (55%-to-45%) . (Source: nytimes.com, apnews.com. Ed Note: Turnout was high for an off-year, spring special election; ~400,000 votes higher than the last special Wisconsin State Supreme Court election in April of 2023. That said, the total vote was more than 1 million votes shy of the total vote in the 2024 presidential race.)

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3. Wisconsin voters approved an amendment enshrining a photo ID requirement for voting in the state’s constitution. The Associated Press called the race at 8:37 p.m. The vote was 63% to 37% with 95% of the the precincts reporting. The amendment passed the GOP-run Assembly and Senate along party lines earlier this year, with all Republicans supporting and all Democrats opposed.

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4. Editor’s Note:

All in, last night’s results elicited a collective sigh of relief from Republican elected officials. The GOP won both special Congressional elections in Florida by double-digit margins, downgrading media chatter about a “Republican meltdown” to a plausibly explained “off-year-special-election-down-draft”.

In Wisconsin, national Republicans won the exacta. As noted above, Wisconsin voters overwhelmingly approved an amendment enshrining a photo ID requirement for voting in the state’s constitution (a GOP pet project). More important, the “Republican” candidate for the state Supreme Court was defeated by 10 percentage points, an outcome every major Republican elected official in the United States of America rushed to blame on Elon Musk (on background or off the record, needless to say).

Republican elected officials at the state and federal levels are terrified that Mr. Musk may dent (and if Social Security reform goes awry, doom) their re-election prospects in 2026. If the Wisconsin special election hastens his departure from national politics, most Republicans will say: “Thanks so much. Hate to see you go. The door is that way.”

They have to be nice about it. Musk is extraordinarily wealthy and owns one of the most important social media platforms in the world. His support may be a mixed blessing or even a “net negative”, but it can also be invaluable, especially in a pinch. (Sources: John Ellis, wired.com, britannica.com, washingtonpost.com, jsonline.com)

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5. A Paris court yesterday said three appeals have been filed so far in the case against the far-right National Rally party that saw leader Marine Le Pen banned from running for office for five years, but did not provide details on who had filed them. The appeals court said in a statement it would issue a ruling on the appeals in the summer of 2026, ahead of the 2027 presidential election. A lower court convicted Le Pen and two dozen people from her National Rally (RN) party of embezzling EU funds on Monday. It imposed an immediate five-year ban on Le Pen running for office that will bar her from standing in 2027 unless she can get the ruling overturned on appeal before then. Le Pen's lawyer said on Monday she would appeal the ruling, but it was not clear if she had done so yet. Monday's ruling was a major setback for the longtime RN leader, who had been a front-runner in opinion polls for the 2027 presidential election. The ban will not be suspended during any appeal she lodges. (Source: reuters.com. Ed Note: We disagree with the notion that the “ruling was a major setback” for Ms. Le Pen. We believe it firms up and at least partially expands her base of political support.)

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6. Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling European Union funds is sending shockwaves through French and European politics. This decision will reverberate across French politics and influence the battle of narratives over the state of democracy in the West. It will further legitimise the already widespread claim—promoted by the US administration—that elites have taken over Western political systems and have fundamentally skewed it against the will of ordinary people. Populist forces on both sides of the Atlantic have plenty to gain. From Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini to Geert Wilders and Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, far-right politicians have rushed to support Marine Le Pen publicly and denounce what they see as a “violation of democratic norms”. (Source: ecfr.eu)

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7. Eurointelligence:

Yesterday, Le Pen and her party chose to attack the judiciary. It’s democracy that has been executed, said Jordan Bardella. Le Pen sees the verdict as a violation of the rule of law and that the system has released a nuclear bomb. This is like taking the first chapter out of Trump’s playbook. And with every little victory she can score in the next twelve months, her power will rise, making it even more politically difficult for the courts to stop her. France is thus turning into another example where the judiciary and the electorate diverge over what justice is. With the mobilisation of voters against a judge’s verdict of a politician, democracy becomes more fragile.

The Rassemblement National is not alone here in this fight. Laurent Wauquiez and his Les Républicains party, as well as several lawmakers form La France Insoumise, are concerned about the same type of affair. All other parties are on the opposite end in this debate. A radicalisation of discourse seems unavoidable. Can the coalition government survive that internal polarisation? Would the Socialists accept a government that is to weaken the law to allow Le Pen to run? There is more at stake here than Le Pen’s fate. (Source: eurointelligence.com)

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8. Eurointelligence:

The usual picture is that the election winner enjoys a short honeymoon, and an afterglow of rising polls after the elections. After the September 2021 German elections, the victorious SPD continued to rise in the polls until April 2022, as did the Greens. Olaf Scholz had just given his famous speech in March, shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in which he declared a change of epoch in German security policy. As is so often the case in politics, it was a story of promises made - and promises not kept.

What is different this time is that the decline in the winner’s poll rating has started even before a coalition is agreed. CDU and SPD are still negotiating. A German opinion poll now has the AfD only one point behind CDU/CSU at 24% vs 25%. Angry CDU voters are leaving the party, appalled by Friedrich Merz’s ruthless abandonment of virtually all election pledges on the economy. First he folds on the fiscal debt brake, and now it looks like there won’t be any economic reforms. (Source: eurointelligence.com)

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9. South China Morning Post:

In an unprecedented swap, the heads of the personnel department and influence machine of China’s ruling Communist Party have switched roles, the South China Morning Post has learned.

Li Ganjie has become head of the United Front Work Department and Shi Taifeng is the new chief of the Organization Department, according to people familiar with the situation.

Li and Shi are members of the elite 24-man Politburo, but are not part of the core seven-member Standing Committee.

There is no previous case of Politburo members swapping positions. The usual term length for any position at the duo’s level is five years. Both were promoted to the Politburo at the 20th party congress in October 2022. Li was given his current job in April 2023 and Shi in October 2022.

In his new role, Shi, 68, will oversee the appointment and promotion of senior officials.

Meanwhile, Li, 60, will take over a department responsible for stepping up party propaganda among Chinese who are not party members, as well as overseeing religious organizations and political groups inside and outside China. It is also responsible for wooing Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwanese and overseas Chinese.

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10. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) canceled half a week's worth of House votes after failing to contain a revolt over proxy voting within his own party. It was Johnson's biggest legislative blow of 2025 thus far — and the first where President Trump wasn't providing him reinforcement. The House voted against blocking Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) from forcing a vote on allowing House members who are new parents to vote by proxy. (Source: axios.com)

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11. Michael Bloomberg:

Amid all the blaring headlines coming out of Washington, here’s a piece of news that is getting far too little attention: The US is on course for fiscal breakdown. That’s the unambiguous message from the Congressional Budget Office’s newly updated long-term projections. Unless Congress changes course, there’ll be a reckoning, and it will be grim.

As the CBO details, deficit spending is more out of control than ever. Both parties share the blame, as do both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. And all should remember that investors’ appetite for US government debt isn’t limitless.

The federal government is currently spending roughly $7 trillion and collecting only $5 trillion in taxes annually. The resulting deficit is a little over 6% of gross domestic product, a disturbingly high number for an economy around full employment.

The CBO expects public borrowing to remain at this elevated level or higher for decades. Assuming no recessions, public debt will rise to 100% of GDP this year and 118% by 2035 — and it just keeps rising from there. (Source: bloomberg.com)

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