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Ten days ago, I wrote this:
The most likely outcome now is that Republicans will win back control of the Senate decisively. My guess would be 53R-47D and I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if the spread was wider.
It is possible that all the GOP Senate candidates have “peaked too soon,” that the electorate in the contested states will shift back toward the status quo. It’s unlikely. (Source: medium.com/@41jellis)
We’ll see!
But before we do, let’s take one last look at the internals of the News Items U.S. Senate Control-O-Meter.
Arizona 2 Weeks Ago: Democrat favored, not by much. (Hold)
Arizona Last Week: Toss-up. (DK)
Arizona This Week: Toss-up. (DK)
Colorado 2 Weeks Ago: Democrat favored. (Hold)
Colorado Last Week: Tenuous (Hold)
Colorado This Week: Toss-up. (DK)
Nevada 2 Weeks Ago: Republican favored, not by much. (Switch)
Nevada Last Week: Republican favored. (Switch)
Nevada This Week: Republican favored (Switch)
Washington 2 Weeks Ago: Democrat favored, Republicans abandoned a great candidate. God only knows why. (Hold)
Washington Last Week: Democrat slightly favored, maybe. (DK)
Washington This Week: Democrat slightly favored, maybe. (DK)
Wisconsin 2 Weeks Ago: Republican favored. (Hold)
Wisconsin Last Week: Same. (Hold)
Wisconsin This Week: Same (Hold)
Ohio 2 Weeks Ago: Republican favored. Strong-ish Democratic candidate. (Hold)
Ohio Last Week: Same. (Hold)
Ohio This Week: Likely Republican. (Hold)
Iowa 2 Weeks Ago: Republican favored. (Hold)
Iowa Last Week: GOP still favored, but if there’s a Democratic “sleeper” race, this is it. (Hold)
Iowa This Week: The race is over. Grassley (R) wins. (Hold)
Pennsylvania Two Weeks Ago: Toss-up. Slightest edge to Dr. Oz (R), due to Republican tide and Fetterman health issues. (DK)
Pennsylvania Last Week: Same. (DK)
Pennsylvania This Week: Same (DK)
Georgia 2 Weeks Ago: Run-off in December. (DK)
Georgia Last Week: Same (DK)
Georgia This Week: Same ((DK)
Florida 2 Weeks Ago: Republican favored. (Hold)
Florida Last Week: Same. (Hold)
Florida This Week: Rubio wins. (Hold)
North Carolina 2 Weeks Ago: Toss-up. Weak Republican candidate. Strong Democratic candidate. It should be Republican favored. But it isn’t quite yet. (DK)
North Carolina Last Week: Republican favored. (Hold)
North Carolina This Week: Likely Republican. (Hold)
New Hampshire 2 Weeks Ago: Democrat favored. (Hold)
New Hampshire Last Week: Democrat no longer “favored.” More like: “still wins, but barely.” (Tenuous Hold)
New Hampshire This Week: Toss-up. (DK)
“Hold” means the Senate seat in question does not switch sides. “Switch” means it does. “DK” means “don’t know.”
It’s worth mentioning that the only thing holding the GOP back from a certain sweep of the “contested” Senate races is candidate “quality” (as Mitch McConnell put it, a while back). The Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona are fully capable of defeating themselves. Happily for Sen. McConnell, it does not appear that all of them will.
It’s entirely possible that it won’t matter; the rising Republican tide will lift all boats.