Most of what follows was assembled by Tom Smith, our research director and co-editor of Political News Items. This edition looks at the first four states on the Republican calendar of 2024 caucuses and primaries, as well as this Tuesday’s off-year elections and some poll results of interest.
1. Former President Donald Trump now leads his nearest Republican rivals by nearly 30 points in Iowa, with two-thirds of likely GOP caucus-goers dismissing the severity of his legal challenges, according to a poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer. The survey also finds former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley moving up to a tie for second place with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both of whom remain popular with Iowa Republicans ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucuses. Yet the poll shows Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic and locked into their choice than Haley’s and DeSantis’ backers are, even as likely Republican caucus-goers are divided over whether Trump should remain the leader of the GOP. “My life was a lot better when Trump was in office. I felt safe; things were cheaper; he helped out the farmers and my parents. Things were better — plain and simple,” said poll respondent Kendall Pelzer, 53, of Bettendorf, Iowa, who says he’s caucusing for Trump. Selzer, who has been conducting polls of Iowa over the last three decades, said: “This is a good poll for Donald Trump. For all the things that happened between the last poll and now, he’s still the dominant player in the field, and his standing has, in fact, improved from August.” (Source: nbcnews.com)
2. Donald Trump holds a 30 percentage-point lead over the pool of Republican rivals churning below him in New Hampshire, where the vast majority of his supporters say little, if anything, can shift their vote from the former president, according to a new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll. Trump’s yawning advantage in the state’s GOP primary is braced by another factor: Any gains by, say, Nikki Haley — who at 19 percent is polling closest to Trump’s 49 percent of support — are coming at the expense of other Republicans, not Trump, even as just under half of those surveyed believe he is the party’s inevitable nominee, the poll found. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said the poll shows Haley is the strongest alternative candidate to Trump in New Hampshire. Under the state’s semi-open primary system, undeclared voters can choose to vote in the Republican primary, which Paleologos predicted could be advantageous for Haley because she proved slightly more popular among that group than among registered Republicans. (Source: bostonglobe.com. Please note: the poll was conducted in early October)
3. A recent poll of registered voters in Nevada finds Trump, with 65% support, as the clear favorite among likely Republican caucus-goers. More than 8 in 10 Trump supporters in the Silver State say they’re unlikely to change their mind about voting for him, meaning that overall, a majority, 54%, of all likely Republican caucusgoers in the poll already consider themselves locked-in Trump voters After Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds 13% support, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has 6%. Trump’s advantage in the Nevada caucuses spans demographic lines. He holds majority support among all age groups, both men and women, those with college degrees and those without, and among self-described conservatives as well as those who call themselves moderates or liberals. Trump backers are also uniquely enthusiastic about the prospect of his nomination. Among likely Republican caucusgoers who support Trump, 84% say they will definitely support him, while just 16% say there’s a chance they could change their minds. Meanwhile, most of those backing other Republican candidates say they could still change their minds (60%). (Source: cnn.com)
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