The Escalation Trap.
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Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago specializing in international security affairs. He is also the author of a Substack newsletter, The Escalation Trap, which has been (and continues to be) one of the very best sources for analysis of the Iran War. If you are not a subscriber, I strongly suggest you become one. His most recent edition looks at the war in the wake of the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding. Here’s an excerpt which I think is particularly insightful:
The biggest mistake over the coming week will be watching explosions instead of military preparations. These announce the next phase in advance.
Watch four indicators closely.
First: additional U.S. force deployments CLOSER to the Gulf itself. Last week, the Pentagon quietly announced that Marine Expeditionary forces from California were “nearing” the Gulf. Most observers ignored the news because they assumed the war was winding down. They should now watch for additional Marines, Army logistics units, air-defense systems, engineering units, and amphibious shipping. Movements from forces now in the Indian Ocean towards the Gulf are especially important.
Second: expansion of U.S. airpower, especially to Turkey. Watch for additional aerial refueling tankers, surveillance aircraft, and strike aircraft moving into Jordan, Qatar, the UAE, Diego Garcia, or other regional bases. Given Trump’s surprise support of F-35s for Turkey, this country may now become more important to US war planning. Don’t wait for announcements – follow the deployments.
Third: Iran’s target selection, especially across from Qeshm Island and in Red Sea. Thus far, Tehran has largely concentrated on U.S. facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait while continuing pressure on ships near Hormuz. The critical indicator is whether Iran expands beyond those targets— especially to Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which would be critical to any effort by US to seize Qeshm Island, and any moves to threaten the Red Sea, either directly or via the Houthis. These would signal a deliberate decision to widen the war to offset expected US escalation in the coming weeks.
Fourth: signs the United States is preparing to seize terrain rather than simply conduct airstrikes. Watch for increased discussion of US Congressional discretion for another 60 days of major US military operations to “secure shipping lanes” or “prevent Iranian nuclear weapons” and explicit discussion of “clearing” operations around Qeshm Island and Kharg Island. Capturing either would not end the war. It would, however, provide the kind of visible strategic success that political leaders often seek when air campaigns alone fail to produce decisive results.
The coming week will not be defined by who fires the next missile.
It will be defined by which side begins preparing for the next stage of the war.