Some Polls In One Place.

Some commentary as well.

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Programming Note: This is Part One of this week’s “Polls in One Place”. Part Two will be in the “regular format”. It will be distributed later this week.

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We’ve gotten a lot of questions about “the polls” from subscribers and friends. What follows are some answers to some of those questions.

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Q. Who’s ahead?

A. The race is tied. The E-Z semi-exact math of the presidential race is this: If former President Trump is at 48% or better in the national popular vote, he will win in the Electoral College. If Trump is at 47% in the national popular vote, it will be as close in the Electoral College as it was in 2020, which was really, really close (Had ~50,000 votes in 3 states gone the other way, it would have been a tie in the Electoral College). If Trump is at 46% or less in the national popular vote, he will lose in the Electoral College, by not much or more, depending on whether he gets 46% or 45% or 44%, nationally.

We think Trump is at 47% (nationally) at the moment. The Real Clear Politics poll average has him at 46%. The most recent Wall Street Journal poll has him at 47%. Take your pick. It’s not 45% and it’s probably not 49% either.

This much we do know: Trump will not get less than 45% of the national popular vote. So he will always be competitive, within shouting distance, no matter what. This is equally true of Vice President Harris. She will always be competitive because she will not get less than 46-47% of the vote. Unfortunately for her, she must win at least ~51% of the vote (or more) nationally to win in the Electoral College.

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Q. Does the election really depend on who wins which seven states?

A. Yes it does, unfortunately for those of us who don’t live in one of those seven states (PA, MI, WI, GA, NC, AZ and NV). I live in Connecticut. My vote in the presidential election is essentially meaningless. If I don’t vote, Harris will win Connecticut by one less vote. Voters in at least 38 states know the outcome of the presidential election in their states before they cast their ballots.

The irrelevance of the vast majority of the electorate aside, if Harris wins the national popular vote by ~7 million votes (as Biden did), or even if she wins by 8 million votes, it’s possible she will lose in the Electoral College. That’s because of the way the national vote is distributed through the states and “translated” into Electoral College votes. It’s winner-take-all by state (except in Maine and Nebraska, where it’s winner-take-all in Congressional Districts and winner-take-two Electoral College votes based on the statewide result). The dirty little secret of the 2024 president election is this: if it’s as close as it was in 2020, it will be decided by a total of ~250,000 voters, in seven states.