Subscribers to Political Items are a bit more communicative than subscribers to News Items, which is to say, they email with questions more frequently. It occurred to me that other Political Items subscribers might have similar questions, so I thought it might be useful to answer a number of the questions that have been asked.
Q. What’s the deal with Political News Items?
A. Political News Items is two things. Thing One is three newsletters a week; (1) Political Week in Review, (2) Polls in One Place and (3) Individual columns written by myself, Mary Williams Walsh, Tom Smith or outside contributors. In any given week, there may be more than one “column” by one of us or by a contributor.
Thing Two is a podcast (“Night Owls”) featuring Joe Klein and myself talking about politics and issues of the day, here in the United States and around the world. We will have special guests on the podcast as well.
Q. When do these two things become “routinized”?
A. January 3, 2024. The schedule will be as follows: (1) Individual “columns” will be posted when they are finished. They will not be posted at a specific time on a specific day. (2) Polls in One Place will be posted on Mondays mid-day. (3) Political Week in Review will be posted on Sunday, either first thing in the morning or mid-day, depending. (4) The podcast will be taped on Wednesday, “produced” on Thursday and posted on Friday for weekend listening pleasure. It will take a while to get the “pacing” of the podcast right, but we’ve hired a former NPR podcast producer to help us with that. So we’re confident it will be well done.
Q. What’s the point?
A. Over 40% of the world’s population will vote in state or national elections in 2024. The outcomes of a number of those elections could be profound. The US election is of particular interest, obviously. But we’ll be paying attention to elections and political developments overseas as well. We will also be paying close attention to forces roiling domestic politics and geopolitics. The general idea is the same as the News Items mantra: Bring subscribers political news that is interesting, important or both and make you aware of political stories that you might otherwise miss.
Q. What’s the deal with the podcast?
A. Joe Klein and I will talk about politics, foreign and domestic, most of the time. Some of the time Joe and I will interview guests whose perspectives on politics are (we think) especially interesting or insightful.
I’ve known Joe for decades. He’s one of the best political writers/analysts in the United States. He brings vast experience to his work. And we’re friends, which we hope will make our conversations more …..conversational.
Q. Where do things stand in the GOP presidential nomination campaign?
A. The first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are “do or die” for former president Trump’s principal challengers, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. One or the other of them must emerge after New Hampshire as Mr. Trump’s only challenger to have any chance of denying him the GOP’s presidential nomination.
As things stand, Mr. DeSantis appears likely to finish second (or, less likely, first) in Iowa. Ms. Haley appears likely to finish second (or, less likely, first) in New Hampshire. What we don’t know is what impact Iowa will have on New Hampshire. It will certainly garner the “undercard” winner (meaning DeSantis or Haley) a blast of favorable media coverage and some political “momentum”.
If DeSantis has a good night in Iowa, he can sell a “comeback kid” narrative to the mainstream and conservative press, which they will (largely) buy. If a strong showing in Iowa is followed by a relatively good night in New Hampshire, then DeSantis becomes Trump’s sole challenger.
If Haley beats or comes close to defeating DeSantis in Iowa and a week later wins the New Hampshire primary outright or by a wide margin over DeSantis and within shouting distance of Mr. Trump, then she becomes his sole challenger.
Given Trump’s strength in the Sunbelt and Rust Belt states, it will be very difficult to deny him the nomination. If he’s running against two challengers, it will be all but impossible.
Should either DeSantis or Haley emerge as the one, he or she must immediately put Trump on the defensive. The quickest way to do that is to call for weekly debates and, Reagan-like, offer to pay for them.
Trump will do everything he can to avoid a debate or debates, but it will be hard for him to argue that debating doesn’t do anyone any good. Republican primary voters (and Fox News) will be very interested in a debate between “the finalists.” A majority of them will want one or more debates to take place in prime time. A call for debate(s) by the challenger will be seen as both a reasonable and appropriate request. Trump’s refusal to participate would be seen as disrespectful of the GOP primary electorate.
Q. Is Trump as far ahead as everyone says?
A. Yes and no. He’s so far ahead in the national surveys of GOP primary voters that it makes your head spin. He’s not as far ahead in Iowa or New Hampshire.
Ann Selzer, who conducts the Iowa Poll for The Des Moines Register (and other news organizations), surveyed likely Iowa Republican caucus-attenders back in August. She found the following (I’m paraphrasing): Roughly 40% were for Trump-and-only-Trump. Roughly 30% were not-for-Trump. Roughly 25% thought Trump was a good president, but maybe it was time to consider one or more of the others. (The remainder of those interviewed didn’t offer an opinion).
The problem for the challengers is that all of them are campaigning for the support of the ~55%. As a result, their votes get distributed across the “field” and deny any one candidate the opportunity to consolidate the two blocs of the electorate that, combined, might deny Trump a victory (real or perceived) in Iowa. The same rough math applies in New Hampshire.
That said, if DeSantis and/or Haley can get every one of their supporters in Iowa (and New Hampshire) to the “polls” and Trump’s turnout is lackluster (his voters assuming he will win), then the race will be closer than the Political Media Industrial Complex (PMIC!) now predicts. Or as Ms. Selzer put it in one of Mark Halperin’s political briefings, if you can’t take a larger slice of the pie, make your slice bigger.
Q. Do you think it’s possible that DeSantis or Haley can defeat Trump in either Iowa or New Hampshire?
A. Yes. I’d be surprised, but not shocked, if DeSantis defeated Trump in Iowa. I’d be surprised, but not shocked, if Haley defeated Trump in New Hampshire.
Q. What will be the most important “issues” in 2024?
A. Inflation, Biden’s age, Trump, and immigration. If the perception that everyday things (food, gasoline, credit, etc) cost more than they did when Trump was president, Biden’s chances of winning re-election diminish. Biden’s age, as an issue, is self-explanatory. Trump, as an issue, is self-explanatory. Immigration is rocket fuel for any Republican running against Biden. Immigration is rocket fuel for populists generally (viz: The Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, etc.).
“Take back control” was the message of the Brexit campaign in 2016. It remains a powerful message today. That the Biden administration has failed to aggressively “take back control” of the border is one of the great mysteries of present-day politics. It’s not just a “deplorables” issue. It’s a national issue.
And, if you’re keeping score, you’ll notice that 3 of the 4 “most important issues” favor Trump.
Q. What impact will the “independent” candidates have on the general election?
A. Don’t know. The candidacy most threatening to President Biden’s re-election prospects is that of Cornel West. Obviously, whether and where (in which states) the independent candidates are on the ballot will dictate what impact they have on the outcome of the election in the Electoral College. If Mr. West is on the ballot in, say, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, Biden’s margin of error for winning those states narrows, dangerously (from his point of view and perhaps from yours as well).
Q. Is it really going to be a very close election (as it was in 2020)?
A. Yes.
Q. Do you really think that Trump can win next November, given his “baggage”?
A. Yes.
Q. Do you agree with the conventional wisdom that the Republicans will likely recapture control of the U.S. Senate?
A. Yes.