Polls In One Place

by Tom Smith and John Ellis.

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1. The Bad Biden Poll of the Week:

Americans’ views of the nation’s economy – while mostly stagnant for the past few years – are showing signs of improvement. Slightly more than a quarter (28%) rate economic conditions as excellent or good, a 9 percentage point increase from last April.

Virtually all the change since then has come among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Currently, 44% of Democrats have positive views of the economy – the highest share of Joe Biden’s presidency.

The new survey by Pew Research Center, conducted Jan. 16-21 among 5,140 adults, finds that Biden’s own job rating remains highly negative: Just 33% of Americans approve of his job performance, unchanged from last month. (Source: pewresearch.org)

A 33 percent job approval rating makes Biden the underdog in the general election. It’s hard enough for a president to win re-election with a net negative approval rating. It’s more difficult still if the spread (between approve/disapprove) is ~30 percentage points. The good news for Biden is that 53% of Americans say they would “definitely not” support Trump in November, according to an AP-NORC survey published last August. It’s unlikely that number has changed much in the last 5 months. (Sources: nypost.com, apnorc.org)

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2. Moving from the “job approval” measurement to the “favorable/unfavorable opinion” measurement of each of the candidates for president, Gallup reports that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the highest “favorability” rating. The chart below shows how the others fare:

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3. So what does that mean? For the moment it means this:

Donald Trump leads Democratic President Joe Biden by six percentage points in a Reuters/Ipsos poll that showed Americans are unhappy about an election rematch that came into sharper focus this week. The nationwide poll of 1,250 U.S. adults showed Trump leading Biden 40% to 34% with the rest unsure or planning to vote for someone else or no one. The poll had a margin of error of three percentage points. That represented a gain for Trump after a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted earlier this month showed him and Biden tied, though a nationwide survey does not capture the subtleties of the electoral college contest that will be decided this fall in just a handful of competitive states. Some 67% of respondents polled said they were "tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new." Still, just 18% said they would not vote if Biden and Trump were their choice. Trump's six-point lead held even when respondents were given the option of voting for third-party candidates, including anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with Trump drawing 36% support, Biden 30% and Kennedy 8%. Slightly more than half of respondents said they were dissatisfied with the U.S. two-party system, with just one in four satisfied by it. (Source: reuters.com, italics mine)

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4. A $1,000 unexpected emergency expense could derail the lives of more than half of all Americans, according to a new survey. The survey was conducted by Bankrate, a financial analysis and comparison site. Bankrate found that only 44% of Americans surveyed could afford a $1,000 emergency expense. That number is statistically unchanged from the previous year, the company said. Those 56% of Americans who couldn’t weather the storm said they would address that unexpected emergency charge in other ways. Most (21%) said they would use a credit card, 10% would borrow from loved ones and 4% would take out a personal loan. Only 16% said they would reduce their spending to address an unexpected emergency expense, Bankrate said. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for the site, said many Americans continue to “walk on thin ice” when it comes to emergency expenses. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Americans said inflation was causing them to save less for emergencies. On the flipside, however, 19% said they were actually saving more for emergencies specifically because of rising interest rates which are friendly to those putting extra away into their savings accounts. (Sources: bankrate.com, thehill.com)

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5. When Americans are asked to check a box indicating their religious affiliation, 28% now check 'none.' A new study from Pew Research finds that the religiously unaffiliated – a group comprised of atheists, agnostic and those who say their religion is "nothing in particular" – is now the largest cohort in the U.S. They're more prevalent among American adults than Catholics (23%) or evangelical Protestants (24%). Back in 2007, Nones made up just 16% of Americans, but Pew's new survey of more than 3,300 U.S. adults shows that number has now risen dramatically. Researchers refer to this group as the "Nones." (Source: npr.org, pewrsearch.org)

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6. More than ever, parents are supporting their adult children financially — and emotionally. Nearly 60% of parents said they were providing financial support to their adult kids ages 18 to 34, according to a new report from Pew Research Center. That’s because parents these days are more involved and supportive of their children’s lives well into adulthood, said Kim Parker, the organization’s director of social trends research. In fact, more than half of parents text or call their adult kids at least a few times a week, with a majority of children admitting they go to their parents for advice on everything from their finances, careers to physical health. “Kids have stronger ties to their parents and are in contact all the time, so they’re probably very aware of what their kids need,” said Parker. “You can’t really separate the emotional from the financial support.” Soaring housing costs, larger student debt loads and high inflation have made it harder for younger generations to become financially independent. While adults under the age of 25 are more likely to lean on the bank of mom and dad, about a third of adults ages 30 to 34 still received some form of financial aid from their parents in the last 12 months, according to Pew. A whopping 57% of those 18 and 24 are still crashing at their parent’s place too. (Source: bloomberg.com, pewresearch.org)