1. If there’s one chart that tells us what happened in yesterday’s GOP presidential primary in South Carolina, I would go with this one:
(Source: washingtonpost.com/edisonresearch.com)
2. If there’s one chart that tells us what’s going on with GOP primary voters and caucus-attenders this year, I would go with this one:
(Sources: washingtonpost.com/edisonresearch.com) N.B.: The initial wave of the AP/Fox News/NORC Votecast sampling of South Carolina GOP primary voters showed that roughly half thought immigration was the most important issue. Roughly one quarter said the economy was the most important issue. (Source: apnews.com)
3. Looked at through the lens of location, income and education, Trump’s base is rock solid:
(Source: nytimes.com)
4. Political News Items runs a weekly item called “Bad Biden Poll (BBP) of the Week.” We do so because every week brings scads of BBPs, which reiterate and re-reiterate his low approval ratings, his low approval scores on “handling” various issues, the fact that the vast majority of voters believe he’s too old to serve as president for a second term and the 2-to-1 “wrong direction” margin when voters are asked whether the nation is “on the right track or headed in the wrong direction.” The right track/wrong direction question is often referred to as “the nation’s political thermometer.”
We’ve never seen numbers this awful for an incumbent president at this stage of his re-election campaign. The fact that 86% of the electorate believe that President Biden is too old to serve as president in a second term is astonishing. More important, it makes Trump’s election in November much more likely than it would be if Biden was, say, 65 years old.
Each week, rather than recap all the BBPs, we post the data from one. We are careful to cite only the highest quality survey research providers. This week’s BBP is from Gallup and contains two very significant pieces of data:
Americans’ approval of President Joe Biden’s job performance has edged down three percentage points to 38%, just one point shy of his all-time low and well below the 50% threshold that has typically led to reelection for incumbents. In addition, Biden registers subpar approval ratings for his handling of five key issues facing the U.S., including a new low of 28% for immigration and readings ranging from 30% to 40% for the situation in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, foreign affairs, the economy and the situation in Ukraine. Biden’s approval rating has not risen above 44% since August 2021, and his 39.8% average rating for his third year in office was the second worst among post-World War II presidents elected to their first term……
Americans are feeling less content with numerous aspects of the country than they were when President Joe Biden took office three years ago. Of 29 aspects of the country Gallup has tracked during Biden's presidency, public satisfaction has declined in 12, while it has been steady in 12 and improved in five. As a result, in a reversal of the pattern seen before 2021, anemic (sub-33%) public satisfaction ratings of national conditions now outnumber strong (50%+) ones, and by a substantial margin. (Source: news.gallup.com, italics mine)
5. Women aged 50+ have not yet made up their minds about the 2024 election. Ideologically diverse, these women share common concerns about the economy, our nation’s political divides, and the overall future of the country, echoing findings from our Fall 2023 focus groups. Given that women 50+ have consistently been the largest voting bloc by age and gender in the last four national elections, their importance in the upcoming election cannot be overstated.
Women voters aged 50+ have serious worries about the future of our country, including economic concerns and fears about political division.
Seven-in-ten (70%) women 50+ think the country is on the wrong track, and only 27% believe America’s best days are ahead. Troublingly, nearly half (47%) think the best days are behind us.
When they are asked to choose the two biggest issues facing the country today, cost of living tops the list (38% say it is a top issue), followed by immigration (32%), threats to democracy (20%), and political division (16%).
Only 28% of women 50+ expect the economy to improve over the next year, while a plurality (42%) expect the economy to get worse.
Women 50+ are not convinced that the coming year will bring greater stability to our country, with only 19% saying they think things will become more stable, while 46% think they will become less so. Among those who believe the country will become less stable, when asked what factors are most strongly driving this instability, the top responses chosen were government dysfunction (63%), the economy (58%), political division and partisanship (55%), crime (55%), and the situation at the southern border (53%). (Source: aarp.org)
6. Nearly half of Americans in a new poll said they would back a national 16-week abortion ban after The New York Times reported former President Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, privately expressed support for the measure. The Economist/YouGov new poll found 48 percent of respondents would support a national ban on abortions after 16 weeks of pregnancy, including 27 percent who strongly support that restriction. Thirty-six percent said they would oppose such a ban, while another 16 percent said they were not sure. When asked when abortion should be legal, if at all, 38 percent said the procedure should only be allowed in “special circumstances,” such as when the life of the mother is in danger. Another 8 percent said abortion should never be allowed. Twenty-nine percent said abortion should be legal with some restrictions, while 24 percent said abortion should always be legal with no restrictions. If Trump wins the general election in November, 23 percent said they believe abortion rights will be lost entirely. Eighteen percent said abortion rights would be weakened, and 25 percent said they would remain unchanged. (Source: thehill.com, economist.com)
7. Nearly nine months before Election Day, 60% of registered U.S. voters say they've already decided who they're going to vote for. Another 25% say they have a strong commitment to their preferred presidential candidate and "probably won't change." Among the already decided are 61% of registered voters whose preferred candidate is Joe Biden and 61% of those who prefer Donald Trump, in a hypothetical matchup between the two likely nominees. Voters are evenly split between the two men, and neither one's group of supporters is significantly less firm in their support. (Source: today.yougov.com/politics)
8. Confidence Levels in the Three Branches of the U.S. Government:
A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 40% of adults approve of the job that the Supreme Court of the United States is doing, while 60% disapprove. Approval of the Court has remained below 50% in surveys since March 2022, when it stood at 54%. While approval is up from the low point of 38% in July 2022, it has declined from its recent high of 45% in July 2023.
Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 9 (below).
Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions, with the lowest percentage saying they have little or no confidence in juries. The U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the presidency each have the same percentage, 25%, saying they have a great deal or a lot of confidence, with small differences in those saying little or no confidence. Congress has the lowest confidence rating, with 10% of the public expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 57% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress. That is a decline: In July 2023, 14% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, while 43% had little or no confidence. (Source: law.marquette.edu)
9. That’s Right, You’re Not From Texas:
A majority of Texas voters support making it harder for migrants fleeing violence in their home countries to seek asylum in the U.S., while majorities also support many of the controversial measures undertaken by Governor Greg Abbott and the Texas Legislature in response to the situation at the southern border that have received significant national attention this winter, according to the February 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll.
The 59% of Texas voters who favor making it harder for migrants fleeing violence in their home countries to seek asylum in the U.S. includes nearly three quarters of Republicans (71%) and nearly half of Democratic voters (48%). These attitudes are feeding widespread concern as waves of migrants overwhelm strained resources in the Texas-Mexico border region as the state continues to spend unprecedented sums on border enforcement measures: nearly half of Texas voters surveyed, 48%, think the number of migrants attempting to cross the U.S-Mexico border is “a crisis,” while another 23% consider it a “very serious problem, but not a crisis.”
Dark attitudes from the 2020 election and violent reactions to its outcome among Trump supporters continue to lurk in Texas public opinion. As the former president continues to face legal jeopardy related to his attempts to undo the results of the 2020 election, including his instigation of, and response to, the storming of the U.S. Capitol, a clear majority, 58%, say that “Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election.” But 31% say he didn’t, and 12% are still unsure.
Looking ahead, 60% of Texas voters think it is “very likely” (24%) or “somewhat likely” (36%) that “there will be political violence in the United States in response to the 2024 election results,” while 21% think that political violence is “not too likely” and 5% “not at all likely.” The remainder (14%) were unsure. (Sources: texaspolitics.utexas.edu, pewresearch.org)
10. California’s national reputation as a place of dreams and prosperity is in jeopardy, battered by Republicans who dislike almost all aspects of the state and many Democrats who see it as too costly and a poor place to raise a family. Nationwide, 50% of U.S. adults believe the state is in decline, according to a new survey for the Los Angeles Times. Political polarization has intensified the negativity: 48% of Republicans believe the state is “not really American,” the survey found. Three in 10 Republicans say the home of Yosemite’s sheer peaks, Sequoia’s towering redwoods and Malibu’s beaches has a worse natural environment than other states. Nearly 40% of Republicans don’t even think California is a good place to visit, though a majority in both parties say they have been to the state, according to the survey of 1,004 adults, conducted Jan. 26-28 by Leger, a Canadian firm that has polled extensively in the United States. (Source: latimes.com)
11. California's economy is the fifth largest in the world if it were a sovereign nation, with a nominal GDP of $3.89 trillion in 2023, ranking behind Japan and ahead of India. Additionally, if California were considered separately, it would rank as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind the rest of the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. California’s nominal GDP is more than half again as large as that of Texas ($2.355 trillion). (Sources: perplexity.ai, businesstexas.com)
12. Although after almost two years of a large-scale invasion, we are seeing some decline in faith in the Victory of Ukraine, the absolute majority of Ukrainians continue to maintain optimism. Thus, as of the beginning of February 2024, 89% of Ukrainians generally believed in the Victory of Ukraine, in particular, 60% of them were definitely convinced of this. In May 2022, 95% believed in Victory and of them 80% were definitely convinced of it. Currently, only 4% are rather or definitely convinced that Russia will win (in May 2022 there were 1%). If the Ukrainians "strategically" believe in Victory, they are more restrained regarding the current moment of assessing the situation. So, if you ask in whose favor the situation on the battlefield is currently developing, then 24% believe that it is in favor of Ukraine, 15% - in favor of Russia . At the same time, almost half of Ukrainians (47%) believe that it is not in favor of either party. (Source: kiis.com)
13. Europeans appear pessimistic about the outcome of the war. An average of just 10 per cent of Europeans across 12 countries believe that Ukraine will win. Twice as many expect a Russian victory. We can only speculate as to how people define a Russian victory, but it seems plausible to suggest that, for many, the idea of a Russian victory means Ukraine will not be able to liberate all its occupied territories (and a Ukrainian victory that it will). This weak confidence in Ukraine’s chances of victory is visible all over Europe. Poland, Portugal, and Sweden are the most optimistic countries. But even there, only 17 per cent of respondents believe Ukraine will prevail – and in Sweden 19 per cent think Russia will win. Everywhere except for Poland and Portugal more people expect a Russian victory than a Ukrainian one, and as many as 31 per cent in Hungary and 30 per cent in Greece expect this. But the prevailing response everywhere we polled (37 per cent on average) is that the war will end in a settlement – with that response comfortably outweighing a Ukrainian victory even in Poland. (Source: ecfr.eu)
14. Social Media:
As social media use becomes more widespread globally, people in 27 countries surveyed by Pew Research Center between 2022 and 2023 generally see it as more of a good thing than a bad thing for democracy. In 20 of these countries, in fact, majorities say social media has benefited democracy in their nation.
People in emerging economies are particularly likely to say social media has advanced their democracy. Assessments are especially positive in Nigeria and Mexico, where nearly eight-in-ten (77% each) say social media has had a positive effect on democracy.
People are far less certain in other countries, including the Netherlands and France, where more say social media has had a negative effect on democracy than say it’s had positive effect. French President Emmanuel Macron has called for social media regulation to curb the spread of misinformation. In 2023, he also suggested that access to social media should be cut during times of social unrest, including during riots over police violence in France.
Meanwhile, Americans are the least likely to evaluate social media positively. Just 34% of U.S. adults say social media has been a good thing for democracy in the United States, while nearly twice as many (64%) say it has been a bad thing. (Source: pewresearch.org)
15. One last thing, regarding election returns: Kudos to The New York Times for its superb presentation of actual vote data in primary and caucus elections. You can read story after story on election results and never see actual vote totals. Reporters and editors feature “percentages” instead. Percentages are fine. Actual vote — by county, by municipality — is 100x better. (Source: nytimes.com)