1. Bloomberg:
The pandemic’s economic, lifestyle, and work disruptions sent millions of middle-class Americans on the move. Jordan Rocheleau was one of the record-setting 16.1 million US residents who moved to another state in 2021 and 2022 combined, according to Census Bureau estimates.
“We were like, ‘It’s time to get a forever home,’” said 32-year-old Rocheleau. “And we wanted to be in a community where that was possible and we could live sustainably for our financial future.”
The burst of migration is set to be a powerful force in November’s presidential election. Dane County, where Rocheleau put down roots, illustrates why: The Democratic bastion has grown faster than any other large county in Wisconsin, meaning the influx of new residents will play a key role in deciding whether President Joe Biden wins a swing state critical to his bid to return to the White House.
The population shifts are more pronounced in some battleground states than others, and they don’t uniformly favor Biden. But in aggregate, they offer a reason for optimism for the president’s campaign, even as polls show him trailing his likely opponent, Donald Trump: A Bloomberg analysis of state population forecasts found swing-state counties that Biden won in 2020 will have on net gained almost twice as many people by election day as those that voted for Trump.
With Monday’s Iowa caucuses marking a kickoff to the presidential selection process, those patterns will shape how this year’s campaign is fought on the ground as much as its eventual outcome. (Source: bloomberg.com)
2. Gallup:
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied in favorability with the American people, but each is viewed less well than when the two faced off in 2020.
Biden is viewed favorably by 41% of U.S. adults, eight percentage points below his 49% favorable rating in October 2020. Mirroring the trend in his job approval ratings, his favorability is down by more than 15 points from his elevated ratings above 50% in his first year as president.
Trump’s 42% favorable rating is slightly lower than his 45% reading in October 2020 but improved from his weaker ratings in 2021 and 2022 when he faced intense criticism over his handling of the election outcome, including the Jan. 6 riots.
3. Pew Research:
The number of Black eligible voters in the United States is projected to reach 34.4 million in November 2024 after several years of modest growth, accounting for 14.0% of eligible voters in the U.S. in November. Black eligible voters stand out for turnout rates that are higher than among Latino and Asian eligible voters. Black voters could play an important role in determining the outcome of key 2024 elections, including for U.S. president. In Georgia, a closely watched swing state, Black Americans account for a third of eligible voters. As of 2022, about half of Black eligible voters live in one of eight states. Texas has the largest number, with 2.9 million, followed by Georgia and Florida (2.6 million each). Rounding out the top eight are New York (2.4 million), California (2.0 million), North Carolina (1.8 million), and Maryland and Illinois (1.4 million each). Together, these states account for 52% of Black eligible voters in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In 2020, 92% of single-race Black, non-Hispanic voters cast a vote for Democrat Joe Biden, while only 8% backed Republican Donald Trump, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. (Source: pewresearch.org)
4. Pew Research:
Latinos are projected to account for 14.7% of all eligible voters in November 2024, a new high. This share has steadily increased over the past two decades and is up from 13.6% in 2020. In 2000, by comparison, Hispanics made up just 7.4% of U.S. eligible voters. An estimated 36.2 million are eligible to vote this year, up from 32.3 million in 2020. This represents 50% of the total growth in eligible voters during this time. Every year, about 1.4 million Hispanics in the U.S. become eligible to vote. Although then-President Donald Trump made gains among Hispanics in 2020, a majority of Latino voters (59%) voted for current President Joe Biden that year, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. In presidential elections, turnout rates among Hispanic Americans have typically trailed those of some other groups. (Source: pewresearch.org)
5. Pew Research:
Asian Americans have been the fastest-growing group of eligible voters in the United States over roughly the past two decades and since 2020. Their number has grown by 15%, or about 2 million eligible voters, in the past four years. That’s faster than the 3% growth rate for all eligible voters during that span and the 12% for Hispanic eligible voters. This November, a projected 15.0 million Asian Americans will be eligible to vote, making up just 6.1% of all eligible voters, according to Pew Research Center projections. Asian Americans typically lean Democratic. In 2020, 72% of English-speaking, single-race, non-Hispanic Asian voters said they voted for Democrat Joe Biden for president, while 28% said they voted for Republican Donald Trump, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of validated voters. Asian Americans are less likely than Americans overall to be eligible to vote because a significant share are immigrants who are not U.S. citizens. A majority of Asian American eligible voters are naturalized citizens, not U.S.-born citizens. Asian Americans are the only major racial or ethnic group where more of its eligible voters are naturalized citizens than U.S.-born citizens (56% vs. 44%). As of 2022, most Asian American eligible voters (55%) live in only five states. California has the highest number of Asian American eligible voters by far (4.4 million). The state is home to nearly a third (31%) of the entire U.S. Asian electorate. The states with the next-most Asian American eligible voters are New York (1.2 million), Texas (1.1 million), Hawaii (580,000) and New Jersey (575,000). Asian American eligible voters are more likely than the overall eligible voter population to have a bachelor’s degree. As of 2020, half of Asian American eligible voters have a bachelor’s degree or more education. By comparison, a third of all U.S. eligible voters have at least a bachelor’s degree. Asian eligible voters are also more likely than the general eligible voter population to have a postgraduate degree of some kind, such as a master’s degree or law degree (20% vs. 13%). (Source: pewresearch.org)
6. APNORC.org:
Foreign policy issues top the public’s agenda for 2024, followed by economic concerns. Education, the environment and climate change, and health care continue to be major concerns. Most Americans do not expect things to get better for themselves or the country in the upcoming year.
To explore the public’s agenda for 2024, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research conducted a poll in December 2023, in which respondents provided up to five volunteered issues that they believe should be priorities for the federal government in 2024.
With ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, foreign policy has risen to prominence as a major concern compared to previous years. And after several near misses of a government shutdown in 2023, the debt limit and government spending has become a major priority for 2024.
Democrats and Republicans cite immigration, other foreign policy issues, and inflation as a top priority, but their top issues diverge from there. Democrats are concerned about climate change and the environment, education, and health care reform, while Republicans put the economy in general and government debt in their top five.
While the public has a wide-ranging agenda for the federal government, they are not confident that it will be able to address these concerns. Seventy-one percent have little confidence in the ability of the federal government to make progress on important issues facing the country in 2024, including 40% who are not confident at all. (Source: apnorc.org)
7. CBS News:
Americans are increasingly concerned about the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, and the percentage who think the Biden administration should be tougher on immigrants trying to cross it is up to the highest percentage yet. Most say the border situation is very serious, and nearly half now say it's a crisis — up from May — a change in sentiment driven primarily by Democrats and independents. As a result, President Biden's approval on handing the U.S.-Mexico border has also dropped, and his approval on handling immigration in general is at an all-time low, though it hasn't dragged down his overall approval rating. Asked whether President Joe Biden’s administration should be tougher on immigrants crossing the border, 63% in the poll agreed, compared with 55% in September. (Source: cbsnews.com)
8. CBS News:
Three years ago, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol brought immediate, overwhelming and bipartisan disapproval from Americans, and for the most part, it still does. But in the years since, the minority who approve has actually been growing, today reaching the highest it's been, according to a CBS/YouGov poll released Saturday. Though most Republicans don't condone the actions of those who forced their way into the Capitol, the strength of their disapproval has waned over time. Half of Republicans strongly disapproved just after the attack, and now just a third do – and outright approval in the party has risen. Many Americans expect election-related violence over future losses. 51% of respondents expect the losing side to accept their losses peacefully, However, 49% expect violence over those losses. Meanwhile, 70% of respondents believe U.S. democracy is under threat, while 30% feel that democracy is secure. This comes as 39% of respondents do not consider President Biden to be the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election, per the poll. (Source: cbsnews.com)
9. Pennsylvania:
In the key swing state of Pennsylvania, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain in a too-close-to-call hypothetical 2024 general election matchup with 49 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 46 percent supporting Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania. This marks the first time in Pennsylvania that Biden has a numerical advantage over Trump in the 2024 presidential race. In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup that includes independent and Green Party candidates, Biden receives 41 percent support, Trump receives 39 percent support, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 11 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 4 percent support, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2 percent support. (Source: qu.edu)
10: Detroit News:
President Joe Biden's support is on shaky ground in Michigan, and he trails Republican Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in a head-to-head matchup 10 months before the Nov. 5 election, according to a new statewide poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. The survey of 600 likely general election voters in the battleground state found only 17% said Biden, the Democratic incumbent, deserved another term leading the country. That number marked a low for a major public officeholder in modern Michigan political history, said Richard Czuba, founder of Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll. Likewise, in a potential contest between Biden and Trump, who is facing a historic onslaught of criminal charges, 47% of likely voters said they preferred the Republican, while 39% selected Biden, an 8-point advantage for Trump, according to the survey with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points. In addition, 3% said they would vote for another candidate, and 11% said they were undecided. (Source: detroitnews.com)
11. IPSOS Global Advisor 2024 Predictions:
A new survey conducted across seven countries – Croatia, France, Italy, Poland, Sweden, the UK, and the U.S. - reveals support for democratic principles, however approximately half of people are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in their country. The figure is highest in the U.S. (56%), France and Italy (both 51%). In all countries surveyed, people are more likely to say democracy has gotten worse than better in the last five years. This rises to 73% in France and 70% in the U.S. In all but one country, most people say the economy is rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful, rather than working for the benefit of everyone. Two in three Americans (67%) agree with this. In all countries, most people think radical change is needed to improve the current political system. The U.S. is significantly lower than other countries on this measure with only about half of Americans (49%) agreeing with this, while closer to three in give agree with this in France (59%), Italy (59%), and the United Kingdom (62%). However, many people worry about giving their political leaders too much power and feel they can influence things by voting in elections. A bare majority in the U.S. (55%) feel that they can influence things by voting in elections. (Source: ipsos.com)
12. IPSOS Global Advisor 2024 Predictions:
The increasing severity of climate events is creating profound public anxiety.
This year’s Global Prediction survey reveals an increased concern about climate change in China. There's a 12-percentage point increase compared to last year in the belief that more extreme weather events will occur next year, and a 10-percentage point rise in the fear of being hit by a major natural disaster. Furthermore, 83% believe that the Chinese government will set more demanding targets to reduce carbon emissions more quickly. Additionally, 69% believe there will be more restrictions introduced to reduce the amount people drive in their cars in China.
Across a number of different indicators, there is a widespread expectation that what we have seen so far is only the beginning of the climate emergency. Globally, 81% expect average global temperatures to increase in 2024. This has increased by 6% from 75% in 2020, possibly due to the effects of an increased number of wildfires and large parts of the globe experiencing extreme temperatures during the summer months.71% expect average there will be more extreme weather events in their country in 2024 than there were in 2023. This has increased by 6% since 2022. The upward trend also reflects the public's growing concern about the impacts of climate change. 51% expect a natural disaster will hit a major city in their country in 2024. This has increased by 6% since 2022. The growing trend reflects an increasing concern that climate change will bring unpredictable, catastrophic impacts.
However, there is now a reasonable expectation that the alarming seriousness of the climate emergency will provoke action. 55% expect their government to set more demanding targets for carbon emissions in 2024. We are one step closer to the Net Zero target deadline with each passing year. Given the extreme weather events that the public has observed in recent years, there is a growing urgency for the government to provide more direction on how to mitigate climate change. (Source: ipsos.com)
13. DW:
A sense of insecurity prevails among Germans who participated in the latest "Deutschlandtrend" opinion poll. In the representative survey of 1,321 eligible voters conducted by pollster Infratest-dimap on January 2 and 3, only half of respondents said they feel confident that 2024 will turn out to be a good year for them. People's expectations were significantly more negative than at the beginning of last year. One-third they believe that a rather bad year lies ahead, with more extreme weather conditions, continued price hikes, and the arrival of more refugees. Roughly 83% concluded they find the overall situation worrying. They also see no grounds for optimism regarding international affairs: 73% of respondents believe it is unlikely that the Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East will end this year. They were even more pessimistic about Russia's war on Ukraine: Only 9% said they believe it will end this year, 23 percentage points less than at the start of 2023. If parliamentary elections were held this week, I’d vote for….SPD 14%, CDU 31%, Greens 13%, AfD 22%, FDP 5%, Left 4%, Free Voters 3%, Others 11%.
(Source: dw.com)
14. Michelle!
Democrats would rather see Michelle Obama in the White House than Biden. The former first lady has more political star power than incumbent President Joe Biden and other famous and not-so-famous Democrats ahead of the November election, according to The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll, conducted Jan. 2-4. The poll, conducted with Noble Predictive Insights, found that if Democrats and Democrat-leaning likely voters could wave a magic wand, 24% would pick Michelle Obama. The former first lady was followed by Biden (20%), U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (12%), someone else (9%), U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (9%), former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (8%), Vice President Kamala Harris (7%), and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (5%). Three other Democrats didn't have as much appeal: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer got 4%, followed by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (1%) and U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock (1%). (Source: thecentersquare.com)