Polls In One Place.
Some data too.
What follows is a compilation of some of the most interesting and/or important polling results we came across last week. We try to limit the “bad Biden polls” to one or two, because (1) there are many and (2) they tell the same story. This week, most of the national surveys show President Biden and former president Trump tied amongst voters nationally, which sounds like good news for Biden but actually is not, since the Electoral College is almost perfectly aligned in favor of the GOP nominee. Put another way, Biden must lead nationally by at least 4 percentage points to win the Electoral College vote.
In addition to polling results, we include some data points that we think are worth reporting. ‘Polls in One Place’ is researched almost entirely by Tom Smith, polling and data editor of Political News Items.
1. Gallup:
Millions of voters have already cast their ballots in India’s six-week-long election, in which incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi is largely expected to win a rare third consecutive term. Here’s why:
A significant majority (82%) of Indians expressed confidence in their national government in 2023, as they have every year since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took power in 2014.
In 2013, the year before Modi was first elected, a majority of Indians (56%) expressed faith in their national government. Throughout Modi’s two terms, confidence has never dipped below 69%, and it has hovered near 80% for the past five years.
This means that more Indians have faith in their national government than people in many other countries do. Only residents of Tanzania (90%), Uzbekistan (89%), Burkina Faso and Singapore (88% each) had statistically higher confidence in their respective governments than Indians did last year.
Modi’s own approval ratings tell a similar story: 73% of Indians surveyed late last year said they approve of his leadership. Since his reelection in 2019, Modi’s approval ratings have not dropped below 70%.
The election results will be announced in early June. (Source: news.gallup.com)
2. The Economist:
On June 2nd almost 100 million Mexicans will be eligible to cast a vote to elect the country’s next president. Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party is likely to win comfortably. She holds a lead of ~20 points in the latest opinion poll.
But the presidency is only one of some 20,000 jobs up for grabs in what will be Mexico’s largest election ever, measured by the number of voters and available posts. Mexicans will also elect representatives to all 628 seats in Congress, nine governors, more than 1,000 local legislators and some 18,000 municipal roles. The results will determine the political environment in which the next president will operate. They may also define the future of Mexico’s traditional opposition parties, which have been discredited since their last stint in power. “What is at stake is the democratic viability of Mexico: the possibility of having a party system that reflects the democratic pluralism of the country,” says Clemente Castañeda, a senator running for re-election with Citizens’ Movement, a relatively young progressive party. (Source: economist.com)
3. After a spurt of optimism, Americans are feeling a little more glum about the economy — again. Consumer sentiment, a gauge of Americans’ economic perceptions, is at a six-month low, according to a closely watched index by the University of Michigan. The measure notched its biggest drop since 2021, reflecting the persistent tug of inflation on household budgets and fueling fears that rising prices, unemployment and interest rates could all worsen in the coming months. (Source: washingtonpost.com)
4. Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan:
(Source: sca.isr.umich.edu)
5. President Biden’s re-election prospects are being dogged by persistent fears over inflation, with 80 per cent of voters saying high prices are one of their biggest financial challenges, according to a new poll for the Financial Times. The findings, contained in the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll, come amid signs in recent months that inflation is rising again despite falling steadily last year. They reverse recent gains the US president had made among the electorate about his handling of the US economy. The survey found voters are growing less supportive of the president’s economic policies, with 58 per cent of voters disapproving of his handling of the economy, up from 55 per cent last month — 40 per cent approved. Only 28 per cent of voters said Biden had helped the economy — a drop of four points compared to last month. (Source: ft.com)
6. Two charts from the latest FT-Michigan Ross poll:
“Large corporations taking advantage of inflation” might bean opening for the Bi0den campaign. (Source: ft.com)
7. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling stronger than any third-party candidate has in decades, pulling in roughly 10 percent of registered voters across the battleground states as he saps support from both President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, a new series of polls has found. The overall results in the Biden versus Trump contest were virtually unchanged when Mr. Kennedy was included in the polls conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer. But beneath the surface of that seeming stability, the surveys revealed how Mr. Kennedy, powered by social media and younger voters, has emerged as an unpredictable X factor in what would otherwise be a 2020 rematch. With less than six months until the election, the faction of the electorate giving Mr. Kennedy early support exposes some of the vulnerabilities inside the president’s Democratic coalition. Mr. Biden dropped all the way to 33 percent in a five-candidate race, an alarmingly low share of the vote for an incumbent president. The series of polls focused on what are expected to be the most contested states this fall: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two of the groups that Mr. Kennedy performed strongest with in the surveys — voters under 30 (18 percent support) and Latinos (14 percent) — have traditionally been strong Democratic constituencies, unnerving some party strategists. Mr. Biden is also winning only half of Black voters in the multicandidate race. Among crucial independent voters, Mr. Kennedy was pulling in 16 percent support. But his supporters say they are far less committed to him than backers of Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump, and less likely to vote at all. (Source: nytimes.com)
8. Seventy-one percent of Americans say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the upcoming presidential election, which is on par with election year readings at similar points in the 2008 and 2020 campaigns but higher than in 2000, 2004 and 2012. This suggests voter turnout could be robust this year, as Gallup research has shown that, historically, the amount of thought given to an election tends to correspond with turnout. Voter turnout in the 2008 and 2020 elections -- when thought given to the election at this stage mirrored today’s -- was the highest since 1968. (Source: news.gallup.com)
9. Nearly two years after the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision guaranteeing a national right to abortion, a majority of Americans continue to express support for abortion access. About six-in-ten (63%) say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. This share has grown 4 percentage points since 2021 – the year prior to the 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that overturned Roe. The new Pew Research Center survey, conducted April 8-14, 2024, among 8,709 adults, surfaces ongoing – and often partisan – divides over abortion attitudes: Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (85%) overwhelmingly say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, with near unanimous support among liberal Democrats. By comparison, Republicans and Republican leaners (41%) are far less likely to say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. As in the past, relatively few Americans (25%) say abortion should be legal in all cases, while even fewer (8%) say it should be illegal in all cases. About two-thirds of Americans do not take an absolutist view: 38% say it should be legal in most cases, and 28% say it should be illegal in most cases. (Source: pewresearch.org)
10. Expectations over interest rate cuts rather than earnings optimism has made investors the "most bullish" since November 2021, Bank of America's monthly fund manager survey for May showed on Tuesday. The survey of global fund managers with $562 billion in asset under management found 82% expect the first by the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half, while 78% say a recession is unlikely over the next 12 months. The survey showed cash levels fell to a three-year low of 4% from 4.2% the previous months and stock allocation reached its highest since January 2022, a dynamic that typically reflects strong investor confidence. (Source: reuters.com)
11. The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter and 2.0 percent next quarter, up from the predictions of 1.5 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in 2024 and 1.9 percent in 2025. These annual projections are 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous estimates of three months ago. (Source: philadelphiafed.org)
12. According to the findings from Statista Consumer Insights, 52 and 49 percent of U.S. adults have experienced stress or anxiety in the past year, respectively, up from 46 and 38 percent in 2019. Twenty-nine percent of respondents reported having felt loneliness or social isolation in the past year, while 34 percent stated that they have gone through a depressive phase. Just 22 percent of respondents reported not having experienced any of the issues listed above, underlining how common mental health issues really are. (Source: statista.com)
13. 44% of Americans feel they’ve lost time in their lives due to a known culprit: poor mental health. Among people diagnosed with depression and/or anxiety, this percentage nearly doubles to 78%. That’s according to a new national survey from Myriad Genetics, dubbed the GeneSight Mental Health Monitor. In February, the genetic testing company and ACUPOLL Precision Research surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults about their mental health. The results, published in April, reveal the chronological toll of mental illness. (Sourse.fortune.com)
14. The number of people reported as forcibly displaced worldwide has risen from around 2.8 million people in 1952 to some 114 million in 2022. Of these, the biggest group of people were internally displaced persons (57 million), according to data by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). The Russia-Ukraine war pushed this figure past the 100 million mark for the first time in 2022. Data from mid-2023 indicates that 115 million people have been unable to return to their homes. With escalating crises including in Sudan and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2023, these figures will undoubtedly rise even higher once the end year data is published. It is important to note here that actual numbers are likely even higher as this data only reflects the number of people identified by the UN as forcibly displaced. (Source: statista.com)
15. According to estimates from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), some 36.5 million people were living as refugees under the UNHCR or UNRWA mandates as of mid-2023. As this chart shows, the countries hosting the most refugees are predominantly neighboring countries that have been experiencing conflict or war. For example, Iran documented a jump in the number of refugees from 798,343 in 2021 to 3,425,091 in 2022, largely due to an increase in people leaving Afghanistan. Similarly, in Turkey, some 3.3 million refugees in out of the country’s total 3.4 million are from neighboring Syria. Germany, on the other hand, known for its open doors approach during the 2015 crisis of migration policy, still holds a leading position on an international list after having welcomed high numbers of Ukrainian refugees in 2022. Ukrainians now make up the biggest group of refugees in Germany at 1,038,504, followed by Syrians (692,734), Afghans (239,583) and Iraqis (150,064). These figures are for refugees under the UN mandates and not asylum seekers. According to UNHCR data from mid-2023, the countries from which the most people have been forced to flee are Syria (6.5 million), Afghanistan (6.1 million), Ukraine (5.9 million), South Sudan (2.2 million). It’s important to note here that actual numbers are likely even higher as this data only reflects the number of people identified by the UN as forcibly displaced. (Source: statista.com)
16. New data collected by the Entertainment Software Association and YouGov finds more than 190 million Americans play video games for at least one hour a week. Gamers polled self-identified as 53% male, 46% female and 1% were either non-binary or chose not to identify their gender. Adults in the survey were 75% White, 19% Hispanic, 12% Black, 4% Asian/Pacific Islander and 3% Native American — fairly close to the overall racial breakdown of the U.S. population. Overall, 44% of respondents ranked video games among their top forms of entertainment. The poll shows the average player is now 36 years old and has been playing games for 17 years — which the ESA says is good evidence that for many, gaming has become a lifetime hobby. Even as the tendency to play decreases with age, the ESA found even 1 in 3 members of the Silent Generation, 78 and older, were playing an hour or more per week. (Source: scrippsnews.com)
17. Man City.
Manchester City has put its stamp on history. With a 3-1 win at home against West Ham on Sunday, the club has earned an unprecedented fourth consecutive English Premier League title. It was its sixth championship in the past seven seasons, a feat never accomplished before. It also cost a boatload of money:
(Source: nbcnews.com, statista.com)