1.Our chart, based on WTO data, illustrates China’s breathtaking rise to the top of the world’s merchandise exporters over the past 23 years, while also showing who dominated world trade before the China's manufacturing sector became the all-conquering force it is today. It also shows the immense effects of globalization on export volumes. Between 2000 and 2023, global merchandise exports increased 3.7-fold from $6.5 trillion to $23.8 trillion in nominal terms, i.e. not adjusted for inflation. In the same time, China's exports grew 13.6-fold from $250 billion to $3.4 trillion, leaving other major exporters in the dust. (Source: statista.com)
2. According to data published by the United Nations Statistics Division, China accounted for 31 percent of global manufacturing output in 2022. That puts the country almost 15 percentage points ahead of second-placed United States, which used to have the world’s largest manufacturing sector until China overtook it in 2010. With total value added by the Chinese manufacturing sector amounting to more than $5 trillion in 2022, manufacturing accounted for nearly 30 percent of the country’s total economic output. The U.S. economy is much less reliant on manufacturing these days: in 2022, the manufacturing sector accounted for just over 10 percent of the country's gross domestic product. China's global manufacturing dominance is so large that the value added in its manufacturing sector roughly matches the combined output of the next seven largest manufacturing countries in the world.(Source: statista.com)
3. The Kobeissi Letter:
Total world debt officially hit a record $323 trillion in Q3 2024.
Over the last 3 quarters, global debt has skyrocketed by $12 TRILLION, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
Interest expense now exceeds government spending on R&D, infrastructure, and education COMBINED.
Meanwhile, the national debt reached $35.95 TRILLION this week, a new all-time high. (Source: @KobeissiLetter, x.com)
5. The Economist:
“Gaming”, as the industry euphemistically calls itself, is booming across the country. Some 40% of Americans say they wager on sport—a business that was illegal in every state but Nevada until 2018. The amount punters bet on sport on apps such as FanDuel and DraftKings was a mere $7 billion that year; this year it should reach almost $150 billion. That will generate around $14 billion in revenue for the companies concerned. Online casinos, which bring in around half the revenue that sports-betting does, are growing almost as quickly. And in October it became possible to bet on election outcomes, which led to a surge in wagers before America voted on November 5th.
To hear the industry tell it, this is only the beginning. The leading provider of online sports-betting and online casinos estimates that by 2030 online gambling will generate some $60 billion-70 billion in revenue each year, three or four times today’s haul. Then there is the conventional casino business, which generates around $85 billion in annual revenue, but would see that number jump if New York and other states mulling new licenses, such as Texas, went ahead and issued them.
More esoteric forms of speculation, although not technically gambling in most regulators’ eyes, are growing equally fast. Day-traders are loading up on futures and options that expire in hours, as a way to bet on how a share-price will move in the very short term. Most such contracts earn little or no return, but some yield ten or 100 times the initial outlay. By the same token, much of the enthusiasm for certain cryptocurrencies can seem like a high-octane game of chance. Tot all of this activity up—betting in physical and online casinos, on sport and on elections—and Americans are on track to wager $700 billion in 2024, up from $400 billion five years ago. In addition, they are probably betting several hundred billion dollars more each year on short-term equity moves. (Source: economist.com)
People's politics increasingly shape their views about the economy. If there was any doubt, the latest data from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey removed it.
Overall consumer sentiment ticked up to the highest level since April, with an index at 74, up from last month's 71.8. But that masks a stunning reversal in the partisan divide about the economy since Election Day.
Sentiment among Democrats has fallen from 91.4 in October to 70.9 in the December readings.
Sentiment among Republicans, conversely, has risen from 53.6 in October to 81.6 in December.
(Source: University of Michigan/axios.com)
7. Americans' positive rating of the quality of healthcare in the U.S. is now at its lowest point in Gallup’s trend dating back to 2001. The current 44% of U.S. adults who say the quality of healthcare is excellent (11%) or good (33%) is down by a total of 10 percentage points since 2020 after steadily eroding each year. Between 2001 and 2020, majorities ranging from 52% to 62% rated U.S. healthcare quality positively; now, 54% say it is only fair (38%) or poor (16%). As has been the case throughout the 24-year trend, Americans rate healthcare coverage in the U.S. even more negatively than they rate quality. Just 28% say coverage is excellent or good, four points lower than the average since 2001 and well below the 41% high point in 2012. (Source: news.gallup.com)
8. Six-in-ten Americans say they probably won’t get the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine, according to an October survey. Smaller shares say they probably will get an updated vaccine (24%) or have already received one (15%). Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they probably will receive or have already received the vaccine. That extends a trend seen throughout the coronavirus pandemic. Adults ages 65 and older are also more likely than younger adults to say they will get, or already have gotten, the 2024-25 vaccine. (Source: pewresearch.com)
9. A majority of French people want Emmanuel Macron to resign and advance the presidential election scheduled for 2027 to next year, according to a poll by Cluster17 for Le Point magazine. Some opposition lawmakers have called for the president to step down after his government was toppled in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday. According to the poll carried out between the proposal of a censure motion on Monday and the fall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government, 54% of French people are in favor of Macron resigning. The president said earlier this week he won’t resign before his second five-year term ends in 2027. (Source: bloomberg.com)
10. Financial Times:
The German federal election on February 23 will determine the fate of Europe’s largest economy, with voters going to the polls seven months earlier than planned after the ruling coalition collapsed in November.
Support for all three parties in the governing “traffic light” coalition, which includes Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), has fallen considerably since the previous election in September 2021.
It has been a month of whiplash in the world of Canada-U.S. relations. The common denominator, of course, is American president-elect Donald Trump, and his threats of a whopping 25 percent tariff on all Canadian exports into the U.S, tied to various complaints about this country’s actions, or perceived lacks thereof, on defense spending, border security and the drug trade.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds a high level of anxiety within the Canadian public when it comes to the threat and potential consequences. But Canadians stop short of asking the federal government to roll over and do entirely as Trump demands.
Overall, 86 percent say they’re concerned (44% “very concerned”) about the threat of tariffs from Trump. Asked how they feel the Trudeau government should approach these threats, however, half of Canadians say they prefer a hardline approach – that is, even if the tariffs are ultimately implemented, they do not feel Canada should let itself be bullied. One-in-three would take a cautious approach to negotiations (33%), while one-in-10 would do whatever the U.S. demands to avoid being hit with the 25 per cent tax on goods. Notably, the vast majority of that latter group is comprised of those who would support the Conservative Party if an election were held.
After Trudeau made his first trip to visit with Trump in his second go round as president (though he won’t be inaugurated until January), Canadians are offering lower levels of confidence in his government than they did in 2017. At that time, 60 percent said they had confidence in the Trudeau government to handle Trump. Now 42 percent say the same.
One item spoken about by Trump and Trudeau, whether a joke or not, is not something Canadians are willing to entertain. After Trump quipped that Canada could simply become the 51st American state to avoid any negatively impacting U.S. policies, just five percent of Canadians say they would like to see this country join the U.S. (Source: angusreid.org)
12. A new poll has found that 6 in 10 Israelis are concerned for the future of democratic governance in Israel. The Israel Democracy Institute’s November 2024 Israeli Voice Index, which polled 750 people across the country last week, also found Israelis divided over whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is capable of functioning as needed while giving testimony in his corruption trial, and showed 42% of Jews in favor of resettling Gaza, among other findings. Asked by the IDI how they felt “about the state of democratic governance in Israel in the foreseeable future,” 60.5% said pessimistic, 36.1% said optimistic and 3.4% didn’t know. Among Jewish respondents, 57.7% were pessimistic; among Arab respondents 74.3% were pessimistic. Among Jewish respondents, 38.5% were optimistic; among Arab respondents 24.6% were optimistic. (Source: timesofisrael.com)
13. Muhammad was the top choice for parents naming their baby boys in England and Wales in 2023, with more than 4,600 children registered with the name. It has been among the top 10 names for baby boys since 2016, but has now overtaken the previous favourite, Noah, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). There is, however, a level of regional variation with Muhammad not appearing in the top 10 for three regions of England. Other spellings of the name Mohammed and Mohammad also made the top 100 list for England and Wales. The ONS considers each spelling as a separate name, with different variations of Muhammad proving popular in previous years. (Source: bbc.com)
14. Just over half (53%) of Britons say that they are disappointed with what Labour have done in government so far, little changed from 50% in September. One in 5 (19%) say they are pleased. This includes almost three in ten (28%) of those who voted for the party in the last General Election, although 2024 Labour voters are the only group who are more pleased (38%) than disappointed by what Labour have done in government so far. 81% of Conservative 2024 voters and 90% of Reform UK voters are unhappy with the government’s performance. Disappointment is also high among those aged 55-75, with three quarters (74%) saying that they are unhappy (+11ppts since September). Those aged 18-34 are split on Labour’s performance, with 31% pleased and 35% disappointed. (Source: ipsos.com)
16. American voters overwhelmingly say the 2024 elections across the country and in their own communities were run well this year, and they express high levels of confidence that votes were counted accurately. This stands in stark contrast to four years ago, when far fewer voters expressed confidence. Today, 88% of voters say that elections across the United States were run and administered at least somewhat well, up from 59% of voters in 2020. This year’s rosier view of election administration is entirely driven by a shift in views among those who voted for Donald Trump for president:(Source: pewresearch.org)
18. New York City tops the list of big cities in the United States by population but ranks second-to-last for its voter turnout rate in the most recent presidential election — beating only El Paso, Texas. A new report out of the University of California San Diego compared presidential and mayoral election turnout in the 50 biggest cities in the country. At 54%, New York City's bottom-of-the-barrel turnout for the 2024 presidential election was still more than double its voter turnout rate in the 2021 mayoral contest. Only 23% of eligible New Yorkers cast their votes for mayor three years ago. (Source: gothamist.com)
