Because I’ve covered American politics for too long, and because I come from a political family, people ask me what I think will happen come November. What I say is: “it’s going to be close,” because (a) it’s true, and (b) it enables me to not say what I really think. What I really think is that Trump is going to win.
I understand all the reasons why Trump might not win. Most important, Trump has a ceiling. He will almost certainly not get more than 47% of the vote from the national electorate, because at least 60% of suburban women won’t vote for him. Women comprise somewhere between 53% and 54% of the national electorate. Suburban women comprise ~25%.
But Trump doesn’t need 50%-plus-one of voters to win. He need only win various combinations of the 7 states (MI, WI, PA, GA, NC, NV and AZ) that will decide the outcome in the Electoral College. Right now, he would probably win at least five of those states. If Biden stumbles, badly, which he might, Trump could win all seven.
The reason Biden might stumble is his age. He’s 81. He’ll be 82 in November. He is too old to “serve effectively as president,” as countless poll-takers find, over and over again. Depending on which poll you cite, somewhere between 60% and 85% of the national electorate believe this to be the case. What makes it so politically problematic is that it’s true.
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