Ohio.
August 8th: A one-issue special election.
What follows was compiled by our summer intern, Eli Haskel. He sifted through all of the material about next Tuesday’s special election in Ohio and found the two pieces that, taken together, summarize the issue, the stakes and the early indicators of the eventual outcome.
1. Politico:
Millions of dollars are pouring into Ohio for a ballot measure that has become a proxy war for abortion rights.
The measure, known as Issue 1, would raise the threshold for future ballot initiatives — moving the requirement for passage from a simple majority to 60 percent of the vote.
In normal times, such a change would probably not prompt such massive levels of expenditures, nor national attention, especially as it’s being considered in an otherwise sleepy special election.
But these are not normal times. The push to pass Issue 1 is widely seen as an attempt by Republicans in the state to effectively block a separate initiative for abortion rights that is set to be considered this November. As such, it’s prompting a massive arms raise between heavy-hitting groups on each side of the debate.
One Person One Vote raised $14.8 million as part of its effort to oppose Issue 1, according to reports filed with the secretary of state’s office on Thursday. Protect Our Constitution, the group in support of Issue 1, raised $4.9 million. Money is not the only factor in a successful campaign, but the influx of financial support is a reassuring sign for the opposition campaign.
Both sides received substantial funds from out-of-state donors. Most of Protect Our Constitution’s funds — $4 million — came from Illinois-based GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein.
“We have a captive audience who are engaged, who are energized, who are enthusiastic and are ready to take action immediately,” said Jeff Rusnak, a strategist for Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights, one of the groups spearheading the abortion rights measure. “It’d be one thing if there was nothing else going on and everybody was asleep, then, OK, how do you capture their attention in August? But they weren’t. It was the exact opposite of that.”
How Issue 1 fares when it comes for a vote on Aug. 8 will be an early indication of whether the post-Dobbs energy on abortion rights still turns out voters. (Sources: politico.com, ohiosos.gov)
Early vote totals, already surpassing expectations, have only accelerated as the August 8 election gets closer. Voters will determine whether it should be harder to approve future constitutional amendments.
Through the first seven days, about 16,000 voters showed up to cast their ballots each day. Fourteen days in, however, that average has risen to more than 18,000 a day.
Those daily figures may rise even further. Beginning this week, county boards will be open for extended hours, opening earlier and closing later.
The constitutional amendment raising the bar for all future amendments has clearly galvanized Ohio voters. Those who oppose the idea see it as an effort by conservative lawmakers insulate their political gains by wresting power from the voters. Supporters contend legislating through the constitution isn’t exactly good governance. But the loudest among them make no bones about their political calculations. To them, making it harder to amend the constitution in August, is all about making it harder to pass an abortion rights amendment in November.
A total of 255,305 people voted early in-person through last Friday — the most recent absentee report posted. For context, that’s about 118,000 more than all the early in-person votes cast during last year’s primary election. It’s also not far behind the in-person totals through a similar point in last year’s general election.
Absentee ballot figures are flying past the 2022 primary as well. The 250,886 ballots requested for this August’s election represents a 37% increase on the number of requests boards had seen a week out from election day. The current figure isn’t that far off from the 300,765 ballots requested during the entirety of last year’s primary. (Source: ohiocapitaljournal.com, ohiosos.gov)