Deutschland.

84% Turnout.

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John Ellis is easily one of the five most insightful and wired-in political minds I have ever met or read. — Charlie Cook, founder of The Cook Political Report.

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1. Bloomberg:

Germany’s center-right conservative opposition under Friedrich Merz won the election as projected, with the far-right Alternative for Germany roughly doubling its share of the vote in second place

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats crashed to their worst result since World War II in third and the Greens were fourth

Merz is in pole position to replace Scholz as chancellor but will need at least one coalition partner to secure a parliamentary majority

If the business-friendly Free Democrats and the far-left BSW fail to reach the 5% threshold for getting seats in the Bundestag, Merz could form a government with the SPD

Otherwise he’ll need another partner in a three-way alliance, with the Greens or the FDP the likely options. (Source: bloomberg.com)

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2. Charts:

(Sources: zdf, ard, via ft.com)

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3. Bloomberg/ARD:

According to the latest ARD projections, the parties would get the following seats in the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, with 316 needed for a majority:

Conservative CDU/CSU bloc: 210

Far-right Alternative for Germany: 143

Social Democrats: 117

Greens: 96

Left party: 63

Danish minority party SSW: 1

That would mean the CDU/CSU and the SPD could form a two-party coalition. But it could still change as the night progresses. (Source: bloomberg.com)

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4. Coalition Scenarios: