1. Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he researches and writes extensively on demographics and economic development generally, and more specifically on international security in the Korean peninsula and Asia. Domestically, he focuses on poverty and social well-being. He is also a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). Most important, he’s a friend.
Earlier this year, he and Ashton Verdery of Pennsylvania State University published a lengthy report entitled “China’s Revolution in Family Structure”. It’s a remarkable piece of work and, if you’re interested in China’s biggest challenge, required reading.
In this report, we model simulations of China’s past and prospective patterns and trends in kinship networks. We then use the results from these simulations to analyze, assess, and speculate about their implications for China’s social, economic, and political future. We believe this is the first study to think through the far-reaching implications of the results of demographic and kinship network modeling for a national population of a major economy and great power.
Our simulations show that the Chinese family is about to undergo a radical and historically unprecedented transition, as extended kinship networks atrophy across the nation and close blood relatives disappear altogether for many. This fraying of the extended family and atomization of the nuclear family come at an almost exquisitely inopportune moment in China: Social needs are soaring alongside the rising tally of elderly dependents and the shrinking ranks of those on whom the elderly can rely—two social indicators poised for inescapable collision in the years immediately ahead. Indeed, the withering of the Chinese family as we now know it will make for new and unfamiliar challenges at every stage in the life cycle, for both Chinese people and the Chinese state.
Our simulations revealed several key findings.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Political News Items to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.