1. The Bad Biden Poll of the Week isn’t that bad. From CBS News:
Among all the factors on voters' minds this election, former President Donald Trump's guilty verdict pales in comparison to issues like the economy, inflation, and the border — all items on which Trump maintains advantages. As such, the verdict has not dramatically reshaped the race.
But what we do see is a few more Joe Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump. His vote has become increasingly centered around anti-Trump sentiment, more so than affinity for Mr. Biden himself. Today, most of Mr. Biden's voters say their main rationale is opposing Trump, and that's up from March.
Whether that dynamic is enough to sustain Mr. Biden looms as one of the central questions of this campaign — a contest that today is essentially tied in likely voter preference, both nationally and across the collective battleground states. (Source: cbsnews.com, italics mine)
2. Chart:
3. Wait, there’s another (slightly more) upbeat Biden poll:
Donald Trump has lost some of his edge over Joe Biden on the economy in a monthly poll of American voters, one of the first signs that months of strong economic data may finally be boosting the president’s re-election prospects.
Trump’s lead among registered voters who were asked which of the two candidates they trusted more to handle the economy was just four points in June, down from 11 in February, according to the latest survey conducted for the Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.
The poll was conducted from May 30 to June 3 — immediately after Trump’s criminal conviction in New York over “hush money” payments made to porn actor Stormy Daniels — and found 41 per cent of registered voters nationwide said they trusted Trump, compared with 37 per cent who put their trust in Biden. Seventeen per cent said they trusted neither.
Despite Biden’s seven-point improvement since February, the survey still showed some grim sentiment for the Democratic party candidate, who has battled persistently low approval ratings on his management of the economy — which voters say is their top issue heading into November. (Source: ft.com)
4. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index (May 2024):
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index registered -34 in May, reflecting further deterioration in how Americans assess the economy’s current state as well as its trajectory. The index had improved significantly from -40 in November to -20 in March, before falling to -29 in April.
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index summarizes Americans’ evaluations of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their outlook for the economy (whether they believe it is getting better or worse).
The index has a theoretical range of +100 (if all Americans rate current conditions as excellent or good and say the economy is getting better) to -100 (if all Americans rate the economy as poor and say it is getting worse). In Gallup’s trend of these measures since 1992, the highest ECI score was +56 in January 2000, and the lowest was -72 in October 2008. (Source: news.gallup.com)
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