One way to look at the 2024 presidential election is: President Biden vs. inflation. If prices remain higher than people expect, Mr. Biden’s path to re-election is much steeper. If prices abate, or are perceived as abating, his path is less steep.
The price of everything (more or less) has spiked during Biden’s presidency. You know the litany: the cost of credit is up, housing is up, food is up, car prices are up, insurance costs are up, durable goods are more expensive, electricity is up, natural gas is up.
It is true that the price of all these things has (mostly) stabilized or even abated somewhat, but they’re more expensive, and in certain cases a lot more expensive, than they were at the beginning of Biden’s presidency.
For “average” Americans, the two “inflation touch points” that register on a weekly basis are the price of food and the price of oil, which presents itself as the cost of a gallon of gasoline. We’ll get to food prices down the road. Right now, let’s look at the price of oil. More to the point, let’s look at what the price of oil might be in the second half of this year.
Obviously. no one can say for sure what the price of oil will be in the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year, but there are people who can “model” the likeliest scenarios. Some of those people work at Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, which is staffed by some of the smartest people in finance. We have a relationship with Bridgewater that enables us, from time to time, to present you the firm’s thinking on various subjects. Here’s what they think about oil prices:
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